HECC Insights

The Next 100 Years: From the War on Terror to the AI Crisis

HIHECC Insights Team
•
The Next 100 Years: From the War on Terror to the AI Crisis

To forecast the next century, we must look to the cycles of the past. Theories like the "Fourth Turning" propose that history moves in ~80-year cycles, each culminating in a transformative crisis that tears down the old order and builds a new one. The Millennial generation was forged in the "War on Terror," a geopolitical crisis. The next generation is heading toward a crisis of a different kind: an internal, social civil war over the very meaning of human purpose.

The Millennial Crisis: An External War

For Millennials, the defining generational conflict was the War on Terror. It was a struggle against an external, identifiable foe that shaped global politics, surveillance, and national identity for two decades. This period of "Unravelling" set the stage for the societal shifts we see today, but the fundamental crisis was geopolitical.

The Coming Crisis (2030-2035): A Social Civil War

We predict the next great crisis will unfold between 2030 and 2035. It will not be fought with armies but with algorithms, ethics, and economic policy. This "Social Civil War" will pit two fundamental forces against each other: the relentless advance of AI and robotics, and the desperate search for human purpose.

  • The Core Dilemma: As AI automates not just labour but also cognitive and creative tasks, society will be forced to confront a profound identity crisis. If our jobs no longer define us, what does? This forces a critical question: will economic growth be redefined away from pure output, and how will people establish value in what they do when their economic utility is challenged?
  • The AI Spectrum: Complicating this is the unknown nature of AI itself. Will it remain a sophisticated tool we command, or will it evolve into a true partner, blurring the lines of control and collaboration in our daily lives? The answer to this will shape the very fabric of the conflict.
  • The Generational Fault Line: The generation coming of age now—digital natives who see AI as a given—will be at the epicentre. Their struggle will be to navigate this new landscape and define human value in a world where our utility is no longer our primary asset.
  • The Battlegrounds: This conflict will play out in debates over Universal Basic Income, the ethics of autonomous systems, the regulation of AI, and the very structure of our educational and social systems.

The New World Order (Post-2035)

Out of the crucible of this crisis, a new societal order will emerge, setting the template for the rest of the 21st century until the early 2100s. This "First Turning" will be defined by the settlement reached in the AI conflict.

Will we successfully redefine human purpose around creativity, community, and stewardship, using AI as a tool to unlock our potential? Or will we see a fractured world, divided between an augmented elite and a vast population made economically "obsolete"? The answer will determine the character of the next 80 years.

Understanding this long-wave cycle is the ultimate form of predictive analysis. The key is not just to track technological advancement, but to anticipate the profound social and cultural questions it will force us to answer.